By Itumeleng Makgetla
As the year 2024 draws to a close, analysts, observers, and ruling classes across the world are on edge. By the end of the year, about 64 countries will have undergone elections.
The recent conclusion of elections in South Africa, Mozambique, and Botswana has cast a piercing glare on the upcoming 27 November general elections in Namibia. This event marks the culmination of a global election super-cycle that could reshape politics worldwide.
Youth: The Game-Changers of Namibia’s Electorate
No fewer than 21 political parties and 15 presidential candidates will compete for power in Namibia’s National Assembly and presidential elections. According to the Electoral Commission of Namibia, 1,449,569 Namibians are eligible to vote.
The data shows that the youth make up a significant portion of the electorate compared to older generations, giving them substantial influence over the outcome of the polls.
Since gaining independence in 1990, the South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO) has dominated Namibian politics.
However, its grip has weakened in recent election cycles, mirroring the decline of other liberation movements like South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC), Botswana’s Democratic Party (BDP), and Mozambique’s Liberation Front (FRELIMO).
In the 2014 elections, SWAPO’s support plunged from 87% to 56%. This erosion of support is largely driven by shared voter grievances across the region, including high youth unemployment, soaring living costs, and pervasive corruption.
Disillusionment with Liberation Movements
Unresolved issues such as land ownership, economic disenfranchisement, and crippling poverty have tested public patience to its limits.
Inflation, the misuse of taxpayer funds, and unfulfilled promises have further eroded trust in governments across Southern Africa. Young people, in particular, view liberation movement politicians as kleptocratic, nepotistic elites—often no better, and sometimes worse, than their colonial predecessors.
With the advent of digital information and improved communication tools, political mobilisation among the youth is stronger than ever, prompting many to explore alternatives or even opt for conscientious objection.
Shifting Loyalties: A New Generation Speaks Out
This year, young voters in the region have disrupted traditional power structures. Simply put, the youth have grown disillusioned with the underperformance and broken promises of liberation movements.
Loyalty to independence-era ideals and personalities no longer resonates with a generation that is better informed, better educated, and yet materially worse off than their predecessors.
Opposition parties, often seen as protectors of the status quo, have also failed to capture the trust of this demographic.
Key Contenders in Namibia’s Elections
Namibia’s general and presidential elections are shaping up to be a three-horse race, primarily between the ruling SWAPO, the Independent Patriots for Change (IPC), and the newly registered Affirmative Repositioning (AR) party.
SWAPO: The Incumbent Party
SWAPO is fielding Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah (72) as its presidential candidate. A veteran of the party, Nandi-Ndaitwah is Namibia’s third and current vice president, a position she has held since February 2024.
During her long political career, she served as deputy prime minister from 2015 to 2024. Poised to become SWAPO’s first female presidential candidate, she embodies the party’s legacy while aiming to address contemporary challenges.
IPC: The Official Opposition
The official opposition, IPC, is led by its founder Dr Panduleni Filemon Bango Itula (67). A dentist and lawyer, Dr Itula previously served as Namibia’s Chief Dentist.
He contested the 2019 general elections as an independent candidate, securing 29% of the vote and finishing second to the now-late President Hage Geingob of SWAPO.
Since the end of former President Hifikepunye Pohamba’s tenure in 2015, SWAPO’s fortunes have continued to decline.
AR: The Newcomer
The Affirmative Repositioning (AR) party, registered in June 2024, will be represented by Professor Job Shipululo Amupanda (37).
A former Mayor of Windhoek, Amupanda was expelled from SWAPO’s Youth League. He later co-founded the Affirmative Repositioning Movement, comprising radical youth activists.
A former professor at the University of Namibia, Amupanda has garnered recognition for his activism, including receiving the Windhoek Observer’s 2015 Newsmaker of the Year award in politics.
Political Turbulence and the Road Ahead
In the lead-up to these elections, Namibia has been gripped by legal wranglings, motions of no confidence, and the removal of city councillors in Windhoek—signs of deep ideological divides among political parties.
While pre-election debates have dominated public discourse, the election results may necessitate coalition arrangements in parliament.
Such outcomes would involve political horse-trading, alliances, and the compromises characteristic of democratic governance.
Lessons from Regional Elections
Across Southern Africa, recent elections have yielded surprising results. South Africa witnessed a hung parliament after the ANC failed to secure a majority in the May 2024 elections.
In Mozambique, the opposition party Podemos rejected FRELIMO’s victory, sparking violent unrest.
Meanwhile, Botswana’s Democratic Party suffered a stunning defeat after nearly six decades in power, ousted by an opposition coalition in October.
Namibia faces similar challenges. Economic stagnation, inflation, and fiscal mismanagement—exacerbated by the Namibian Dollar’s peg to the South African Rand—have created hardships for the electorate.
These conditions have fuelled widespread dissatisfaction, particularly among young voters.
The Youth as the Pendulum of Change
If the trends seen in neighbouring countries are any indication, Namibia’s youth hold the key to this election. With over half of the electorate made up of young people, their collective voice is more powerful than ever.
This demographic has demonstrated a growing discontent with traditional political structures and liberation movements that, while historically significant, have failed to address the pressing issues of today.
High unemployment, rising inequality, and unfulfilled promises have left many young Namibians feeling disenfranchised and eager for change.
The youth are no longer content with rhetoric steeped in past glories. They are demanding solutions that address their lived realities—access to meaningful employment, affordable education, and equitable economic opportunities.
These voters are also leveraging technology and social media platforms to mobilise, raise awareness, and hold political leaders accountable in ways that were unimaginable a decade ago.
The digital age has given rise to a new kind of activism, one that transcends geographic boundaries and allows for the rapid dissemination of information, countering the traditional gatekeepers of political discourse.
This mobilisation poses a serious challenge to Namibia’s established political order. The youth’s disillusionment with the status quo reflects broader regional trends, where younger generations have upended long-standing ruling parties in countries like Botswana and Mozambique.
These voters are increasingly unafraid to explore alternatives, whether by casting their ballots for newer political movements or withholding their votes altogether as a form of protest.
Namibia’s political landscape is on the brink of transformation, and the youth are at the centre of it.
Whether they rally behind a specific party or fragment across various movements, their influence will shape not just the outcome of this election but the future trajectory of the nation.
Should their demands for change remain unmet, it could sow the seeds of further political and social upheaval in the years to come.
As Namibia stands at this critical crossroads, the question remains: will the youth usher in a new era of accountability and progress, or will their calls for change be met with resistance and stagnation?
Either way, the election results will serve as a bellwether for the power of youth-driven movements in reshaping governance across Southern Africa.
