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IRR poll predicts an 11% drop in support for ANC

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A poll conducted by IRR predicts a drop of about 11% in national support for the ANC while the DA faces trouble in the Western Cape.

The South African Institute of Race Relations (IRR) conducted a poll which predicted a huge drop of national support for the African National Congress (ANC), while the Democratic Alliance (DA) could be facing trouble in the Western Cape. The poll shows that the ANC sits at 49.5% of national support, while the DA sits at 21.3% and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) sits at 14.9%. On Tuesday, 30 April 2019, the IRR’s head of politics and governance Gareth van Onselen said the poll was not a prediction of the voting outcome for the upcoming election on Wednesday, 8 May 2019.

The poll results are based on a sample of 2 375 registered voters and was conducted between 18 to 25 April 2019 and these are the forecasts:

National ballot: ANC majority in the balance, EFF continues to grow, DA stable:

The ANC currently stands on 49.5% nationally, down 5.2 percentage points from February (54.7%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 51%. On a 69.3% turnout scenario, it increases to 50%.

The DA currently stands on 21.3% nationally, down 0.5 percentage points from February (21.8%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 24%. On a 69.3% turnout scenario, it also increases to 24%.

The EFF currently stands on 14.9% nationally, up 2.7 percentage points from February (12.2%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party decreases to 14%. On a 69.3% turnout scenario, it also decreases to 14%.2.

Gauteng provincial ballot: ANC well below a majority, significant DA growth on low turnout:

The ANC currently stands on 42.8% on the provincial ballot, up 1.2 percentage points from February (41.6%). On a 70.4% turnout scenario, support for the party decreases to 39%. On a 67.7% turnout scenario, it also decreases to 39%.

The DA currently stands on 31.9% on the provincial ballot, down 0.5 percentage points from February (32.4%). On a 70.4% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 39%. On a 67.7% turnout scenario, it increases to 40%.

The EFF currently stands on 13.0% on the provincial ballot, down 5.2 percentage points from February (18.2%). On a 70.4% turnout scenario, support for the party decreases to 12%. On a 67.7% turnout scenario, it also decreases to 12.3%.

Western Cape provincial ballot: DA majority under threat, ANC declines, ACDP/EFF growth:

The DA currently stands on 44.6% on the provincial ballot, down 5.5 percentage points from February (50.1%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 50%. On a 69.1% turnout scenario, it increases to 51%.

The ANC currently stands on 27.8% on the provincial ballot, down 6.1 percentage points from February (33.9%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 29%. On a 69.1% turnout scenario, it increases to 28%.

The ACDP currently stands on 7.0% on the provincial ballot, up 3.5 percentage points from February (3.5%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party stays at 7%. On a 69.1% turnout scenario, it also stays at 7%.

The EFF currently stands on 6.8% on the provincial ballot, up 5.8 percentage points from February (1.0%). On a 71.9% turnout scenario, support for the party decreases to 5%. On a 69.1% turnout scenario, it also decreases to 5%.

The poll results have, however, been criticised by observers. Economic analyst Russell Lamberti said: “IRR poll quite a bombshell – almost too much to believe … [Got to] say that the plummet in the ANC numbers in the IRR poll has to raise serious sampling questions. Big test for IRR polling cred now.”

Meanwhile, political commentator Dawie Scholtz said the poll prediction was too low a number for the ANC and this could only be the result of a drop in black voters.

Abenathi Gqomo
[email protected]

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